Showing posts with label Italy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Italy. Show all posts

Sunday, April 21, 2013

Italy Stalemate Broken, Napolitano, 87, Elected for Another 7-Year Term

In a move that cannot possibly solve anything Italian Lawmakers, Re-elect President to Second Term.

In a bid to quiet growing political chaos, Italian lawmakers on Saturday elected President Giorgio Napolitano to a second term, turning to him as the last best hope to break a profound deadlock.

The election of Mr. Napolitano, supported by both the main center-left and center-right parties, suggested that the two sides would now be more willing to negotiate the formation of a government. But it also infuriated the anti-establishment Five Star Movement of Beppe Grillo, which won a quarter of the recent parliamentary vote.


While he cannot prevent a grand coalition, one including both major parties, from forming, Mr. Grillo could complicate matters by stirring renewed anger against the old political establishment, which is in upheaval.


After Mr. Grillo called on his supporters to take to the streets, hundreds of protesters gathered in front of the Parliament building, many holding placards in support of Five Star’s candidate, Stefano Rodotà , a legal expert and former leader of the center-left, which nonetheless did not back him. Mr.dà is “not part of the old guard,” said one protester, Anna Maria Vatrella, an unemployed social worker. “All the left knows how to do is to hold on to the power they have. They have no interest in change. They have no idea what it means to live as normal people do.”


Pier Luigi Bersani Announces Resignation


In case you missed it late Friday Italy centre-left leader Pier Luigi Bersani announced resignation

Mr Bersani’s move came after backers in his party voted down two candidates that he had proposed for the role of president. Late on Friday night, he accused fellow party members of betraying him, adding that there was a “tendency in some towards permanent destruction.”

The centre-left’s implosion is the latest reminder of how it is made up of a string of parties, from former communists to Christian democrats who have never gelled, failing to hold a government together when elected in 2006 and never mounting a truly convincing opposition to Silvio Berlusconi.


While the centre-left has stumbled since the election, former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi’s centre-right coalition has taken a lead in the polls. Mr Bersani’s exit could allow his photogenic young rival in the Democratic Party, Matteo Renzi – who also appeals to right wing voters — to take charge.


Yesterday, Giorgio Napolitano, the 87-year-old incumbent president, agreed to accept a mandate for a second term as a president in order to end the impasse over who should do the job. He had previously sought to avoid standing again because of his advanced age.


As I said, Bersani’s days were numbered. Little did I know they would be this numbered. Now what?


Napolitano could not form a grand coalition before so why can he do so now? The only thing that has changed is Bersani is gone and the supporters of Grillo are madder than ever.


Given that both Berlusconi and Grillo have a chance at winning the next election outright, both have a reason to want new elections. Berlusconi has another objective, however, and that is coming up with any deal that avoids prosecution.


With that in mind, an unstable “grand coalition” of sorts may be temporarily possibile. If so, expect the coalition to dissolve as soon as Berlusconi gets the immunity he seeks.


Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com


Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis



Italy Stalemate Broken, Napolitano, 87, Elected for Another 7-Year Term

Saturday, April 20, 2013

Italy Stalemate Broken, Napolitano, 87, Elected for Another 7-Year Term

In a move that cannot possibly solve anything Italian Lawmakers, Re-elect President to Second Term.

In a bid to quiet growing political chaos, Italian lawmakers on Saturday elected President Giorgio Napolitano to a second term, turning to him as the last best hope to break a profound deadlock.

The election of Mr. Napolitano, supported by both the main center-left and center-right parties, suggested that the two sides would now be more willing to negotiate the formation of a government. But it also infuriated the anti-establishment Five Star Movement of Beppe Grillo, which won a quarter of the recent parliamentary vote.


While he cannot prevent a grand coalition, one including both major parties, from forming, Mr. Grillo could complicate matters by stirring renewed anger against the old political establishment, which is in upheaval.


After Mr. Grillo called on his supporters to take to the streets, hundreds of protesters gathered in front of the Parliament building, many holding placards in support of Five Star’s candidate, Stefano Rodotà , a legal expert and former leader of the center-left, which nonetheless did not back him. Mr.dà is “not part of the old guard,” said one protester, Anna Maria Vatrella, an unemployed social worker. “All the left knows how to do is to hold on to the power they have. They have no interest in change. They have no idea what it means to live as normal people do.”


Pier Luigi Bersani Announces Resignation


In case you missed it late Friday Italy centre-left leader Pier Luigi Bersani announced resignation

Mr Bersani’s move came after backers in his party voted down two candidates that he had proposed for the role of president. Late on Friday night, he accused fellow party members of betraying him, adding that there was a “tendency in some towards permanent destruction.”

The centre-left’s implosion is the latest reminder of how it is made up of a string of parties, from former communists to Christian democrats who have never gelled, failing to hold a government together when elected in 2006 and never mounting a truly convincing opposition to Silvio Berlusconi.


While the centre-left has stumbled since the election, former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi’s centre-right coalition has taken a lead in the polls. Mr Bersani’s exit could allow his photogenic young rival in the Democratic Party, Matteo Renzi – who also appeals to right wing voters — to take charge.


Yesterday, Giorgio Napolitano, the 87-year-old incumbent president, agreed to accept a mandate for a second term as a president in order to end the impasse over who should do the job. He had previously sought to avoid standing again because of his advanced age.


As I said, Bersani’s days were numbered. Little did I know they would be this numbered. Now what?


Napolitano could not form a grand coalition before so why can he do so now? The only thing that has changed is Bersani is gone and the supporters of Grillo are madder than ever.


Given that both Berlusconi and Grillo have a chance at winning the next election outright, both have a reason to want new elections. Berlusconi has another objective, however, and that is coming up with any deal that avoids prosecution.


With that in mind, an unstable “grand coalition” of sorts may be temporarily possibile. If so, expect the coalition to dissolve as soon as Berlusconi gets the immunity he seeks.


Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com


Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis



Italy Stalemate Broken, Napolitano, 87, Elected for Another 7-Year Term

Sunday, April 14, 2013

The Man Who Cannot Graduate and the Failure of College Education in Italy





I want to expose the incredible story of an Italian citizen who cannot graduate due to some occult and horrible bureaucratic problems in the Department where he is studying now. The most incredible part of this “not so fairy tale” is that this man is myself.


University of Calabria

University of Calabria



by Bruno Martino
Intellihub.com

April 14, 2013


My name is Bruno Martino and I am finishing a Bachelor of Arts in Modern and Foreign Languages at the Department of Linguistic at University Of Calabria, in Italy. In 2012, when I didn’t still finish all my exams, I contacted many professors and lecturers in the same Department, to require a thesis and in order to complete my graduation. After many months, I wasn’t able to find any spare professor or lecturer to write my thesis. They all manifested against me a negative behaviour. They told me that they were busy, they couldn’t afford new students and so on.


In the late 2012, I finished all my exams and I wasn’t able to find anyone in order to complete my thesis. So I contacted the Dean of Department to expose my very incredible situation. This one told me that I had to prepare a particular request, which should have been approved by The High Council of The Department, to find a professor or a lecturer to complete my thesis. They told me that they would have considered the subjects, where I had the best final marks, and then they would have assigned me a thesis in one of these ones. After many pressures, and contrasts against me created by the Department staff, they assigned me a thesis in a very odd subject, where I had very low final marks. They told me that it was the unique solution, and I was obliged to accept this nonsense decision. Some members of the Administration office manifested an unfair and aggressive behaviour against me. In some occult way, they manipulated my will and I accepted their decision.


In the months later, I tried to write a thesis in this very odd subject, and I discovered as soon as possible that I didn’t have the required skills and knowledge to complete this task. I felt so frustrated and offended, and this professor continued to blame me as an incompetent and unskilled student. So I decided to leave this subject and to swap for another one. Here the surprise arrived very soon: all the professors and lecturers cannot accept new students, they are full, the doors were closed again and again. What is The result of this nonsense and unfair behaviour? I am losing one year at University, and I risk to pay more tuition fees for the lost semesters.


In April 2013 I contacted again some members of the administrative staff in the Department. They continued to mob me, and to use the same idiot excuses. Finally, I was able to see again The Dean Of The Department. I showed him the reality of this sad situation. This man continued to expose his very strange standpoint “you have to change the content of your thesis in this subject” “it is your fault” “there are no other options” “you cannot swap for another subject” and so on. After a very detailed exposition of my argumentations, the Dean told me “you have to contact on yourself all the professors and lecturers in the subjects, where you gained the best final marks, but I cannot guarantee a successful deal between you and them”. He also said “maybe, if you continue to have troubles, we can “help” you in “some ways”. The conclusion of this speech seems to me the ordinary and unfair continuation of all the fraud exposed before. Moreover, according to the Dean, I cannot do a new “particular request” for “those students unable to complete a thesis, because all the Department staff is too busy”.


If there is no solution for my case, I will try to contact a good solicitor to sue the Department, and at least, to have a full refund of the tuition fees for the lost semesters. This problem also damaged my health. In fact, I am suffering for an anxiety problem called “Conversion syndrome”. This one is a serious disease, where physical symptoms and pains are created by a status of anxiety. In order to defeat this problem, I am going to a private Doctor, because the local National Health Service does not cover the treatments for Conversion syndrome. This would cost me around 1000 GBP, and there is a very strict connection between this disease and the stressors and distress created by the unfair behaviour of The Department.


I want to expose my case, because there is no doubt that I am a victim of a serious form of mobbing by The Department of Linguistics at UNICAL. It is an evident emotional abuse, where I was intimidated, discredited, and humiliated by superiors. Even these evident somatic symptoms (headaches and irritable bowel syndrome) are a product of this bullying and ganging up by The Department. The most interesting side is that there are tons of other students in the same situations, who aren’t able to graduate and are desperately looking for a solution. According to my experience, behind this problem, there is a well orchestrate scam. The real reason is that, due to the recent cuts in budget spending in Higher Education, some Italian Universities are playing nasty tricks to recover more money: delaying the graduation of Italian students in many ways in order to raise more bills by the additional tuition fees for lost semesters. It sounds strange, but this is a common situation in some Italian Universities and not so well managed Departments, especially in the South.



According to the OECD statistics, Italian students graduate later than the English ones, not because they are lazy and incompetent, but because there is a confused organization and lack of support, purposely orchestrated in order to create more delays and to earn more money by tuition fees. Moreover in the last years, tuition fees had an incredible increasing of price from a merely 300 GBP per year in the early 90s, to the nowadays 1000 GPB per year. In some State Universities in the North, they can also charge 2000 GPB per year.


According to the OECD statistics, Italy has the 4th most expensive tuition fees in Europe, and one of the worst and underperformed Higher Education Systems. Some nations like Netherlands and England have more expensive tuition fees, but they have one of the best Higher Educational Systems in The World. In the last years despite the increasing of tuition fees, we didn’t have any credible improvement in the quality of Education. In the Early 90s, Italian Higher Education, despite lower tuition fees, offered better results in international rankings and created brilliant students. Today, despite tuition fees over 1000 GPB, it is one of the worst performed and badly managed sectors in the Italian society.


Even some nations like Spain, that have the same spending of GDP in Education (4,3%), have better universities than ours. Other nations that have a not so bigger spending in Education, such as Germany (4,5%), have one of the best universities in the world and no tuition fees. The GDP spending of Italy is lower than the medium range in EU (5,5%), but it is not so low to justify such a so bad level of quality. The most common pattern in Italian Higher Education is “an uniform mediocrity”. There is no Italian Institution in the top 100 best university world rankings. The biggest issue is not to spend more, but to spend better, in order to offer a credible service charged by lower tuition fees.


According to The Economist five Italian universities are in effect bankrupt. The Italian Higher Education is in some ways, the equivalent of the slow, bureaucratic, and poorly managed National Health Service in United Kingdom (one of the most expensive and worst NHS systems in OECD countries). Italian students also have the highest dropout rate (55%) and graduate very late (28 years old). If you come from UK, and you are familiar to some mad GPs and Surgeons in your local hospitals, these horrible images are not so different from what you could find in some Departments in Italy. Another occult aspect of our Educational System is Cronism. In the last 20 years, in Italy we had the biggest increasing of “Mickey Mouse Degrees”, and a proliferation on nonsense courses and Departments. According to The Economist in Italy there are 37 courses with one student, and 327 faculties with less than 15 students.


Another bad aspect of our Higher Education is that is based on the nonsense idea to give a Bachelor Degree to every F grade High School leaver picked on the street. In fact, there is not a credible selection process, and many Italians with serious lack of skills in Literacy and Numeracy (and maybe behavioural problems), can easily access to University. This idea creates a falling quality in education, and a massive creation of unskilled graduates. Most of them cannot write or speak in a correct language, and graduate very late with an Ordinary Degree and very low grades in exams. In few words, Italian Academia is going to be a factory of “enriched chavs”. According to OECD studies, Italian graduate have one of the lowest level of knowledge and skills in EU. Some nations in the PIIGS area perform better such as Ireland, Spain and maybe Portugal and Greece.


The last occult aspect of Italian Higher Education System is that it doesn’t have a concrete contact with job market, it doesn’t teach real skills in work environment, and it works on the bad idea to work as parking “for future unemployed citizens”. Despite many nations in Northern Europe, our universities don’t offer programs of working experiences, apprenticeships, internships and sandwich course where you study and then you have training. It doesn’t teach real skills for example how to start your business, and how to sell you product, or how to invest your savings in the stock market. The most occult side is the idea of “parking for future unemployed citizens”. Because our youth unemployment is one of the highest in EU, making University education easier is a way to attract more schooleavers (very potential unemployed citizens) in the Higher Educational System, in order to reduce the real unemployment rate. Because 70% of our schooleavers easily enrol to University, many of them will figure on the national statistics as people still in education. On the other side the number of young jobless appear much lower (youth unemployment is 34%). If Italian University was more selective like 20 years ago, the real number of young jobless would immediately increase to 70% or maybe 80%.


In order to conclude, my case of academic mobbing and bullying is an evident example of the dysfunctional, unproductive and badly performed Higher Educational System in our Republic. The EU, NATO and OECD think thanks should examine the terrible situation in our country, and make strict pressures to our institutions in order to make changes. If the situation doesn’t change, it will explode the biggest bubble in Italian History: The University Bubble scam. This is not only a problem of staff absence and embarrassing levels of disorganization, there is a serious risk of a total bankruptcy of our entire Educational system. Italy is facing “A Deliberate Dumbing Down of youth”, and a Bachelor Degree is going to be no more than a worthless piece of paper.





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Intellihub.com

The Man Who Cannot Graduate and the Failure of College Education in Italy

The Man Who Cannot Graduate and the Failure of College Education in Italy





I want to expose the incredible story of an Italian citizen who cannot graduate due to some occult and horrible bureaucratic problems in the Department where he is studying now. The most incredible part of this “not so fairy tale” is that this man is myself.


University of Calabria

University of Calabria



by Bruno Martino
Intellihub.com

April 14, 2013


My name is Bruno Martino and I am finishing a Bachelor of Arts in Modern and Foreign Languages at the Department of Linguistic at University Of Calabria, in Italy. In 2012, when I didn’t still finish all my exams, I contacted many professors and lecturers in the same Department, to require a thesis and in order to complete my graduation. After many months, I wasn’t able to find any spare professor or lecturer to write my thesis. They all manifested against me a negative behaviour. They told me that they were busy, they couldn’t afford new students and so on.


In the late 2012, I finished all my exams and I wasn’t able to find anyone in order to complete my thesis. So I contacted the Dean of Department to expose my very incredible situation. This one told me that I had to prepare a particular request, which should have been approved by The High Council of The Department, to find a professor or a lecturer to complete my thesis. They told me that they would have considered the subjects, where I had the best final marks, and then they would have assigned me a thesis in one of these ones. After many pressures, and contrasts against me created by the Department staff, they assigned me a thesis in a very odd subject, where I had very low final marks. They told me that it was the unique solution, and I was obliged to accept this nonsense decision. Some members of the Administration office manifested an unfair and aggressive behaviour against me. In some occult way, they manipulated my will and I accepted their decision.


In the months later, I tried to write a thesis in this very odd subject, and I discovered as soon as possible that I didn’t have the required skills and knowledge to complete this task. I felt so frustrated and offended, and this professor continued to blame me as an incompetent and unskilled student. So I decided to leave this subject and to swap for another one. Here the surprise arrived very soon: all the professors and lecturers cannot accept new students, they are full, the doors were closed again and again. What is The result of this nonsense and unfair behaviour? I am losing one year at University, and I risk to pay more tuition fees for the lost semesters.


In April 2013 I contacted again some members of the administrative staff in the Department. They continued to mob me, and to use the same idiot excuses. Finally, I was able to see again The Dean Of The Department. I showed him the reality of this sad situation. This man continued to expose his very strange standpoint “you have to change the content of your thesis in this subject” “it is your fault” “there are no other options” “you cannot swap for another subject” and so on. After a very detailed exposition of my argumentations, the Dean told me “you have to contact on yourself all the professors and lecturers in the subjects, where you gained the best final marks, but I cannot guarantee a successful deal between you and them”. He also said “maybe, if you continue to have troubles, we can “help” you in “some ways”. The conclusion of this speech seems to me the ordinary and unfair continuation of all the fraud exposed before. Moreover, according to the Dean, I cannot do a new “particular request” for “those students unable to complete a thesis, because all the Department staff is too busy”.


If there is no solution for my case, I will try to contact a good solicitor to sue the Department, and at least, to have a full refund of the tuition fees for the lost semesters. This problem also damaged my health. In fact, I am suffering for an anxiety problem called “Conversion syndrome”. This one is a serious disease, where physical symptoms and pains are created by a status of anxiety. In order to defeat this problem, I am going to a private Doctor, because the local National Health Service does not cover the treatments for Conversion syndrome. This would cost me around 1000 GBP, and there is a very strict connection between this disease and the stressors and distress created by the unfair behaviour of The Department.


I want to expose my case, because there is no doubt that I am a victim of a serious form of mobbing by The Department of Linguistics at UNICAL. It is an evident emotional abuse, where I was intimidated, discredited, and humiliated by superiors. Even these evident somatic symptoms (headaches and irritable bowel syndrome) are a product of this bullying and ganging up by The Department. The most interesting side is that there are tons of other students in the same situations, who aren’t able to graduate and are desperately looking for a solution. According to my experience, behind this problem, there is a well orchestrate scam. The real reason is that, due to the recent cuts in budget spending in Higher Education, some Italian Universities are playing nasty tricks to recover more money: delaying the graduation of Italian students in many ways in order to raise more bills by the additional tuition fees for lost semesters. It sounds strange, but this is a common situation in some Italian Universities and not so well managed Departments, especially in the South.



According to the OECD statistics, Italian students graduate later than the English ones, not because they are lazy and incompetent, but because there is a confused organization and lack of support, purposely orchestrated in order to create more delays and to earn more money by tuition fees. Moreover in the last years, tuition fees had an incredible increasing of price from a merely 300 GBP per year in the early 90s, to the nowadays 1000 GPB per year. In some State Universities in the North, they can also charge 2000 GPB per year.


According to the OECD statistics, Italy has the 4th most expensive tuition fees in Europe, and one of the worst and underperformed Higher Education Systems. Some nations like Netherlands and England have more expensive tuition fees, but they have one of the best Higher Educational Systems in The World. In the last years despite the increasing of tuition fees, we didn’t have any credible improvement in the quality of Education. In the Early 90s, Italian Higher Education, despite lower tuition fees, offered better results in international rankings and created brilliant students. Today, despite tuition fees over 1000 GPB, it is one of the worst performed and badly managed sectors in the Italian society.


Even some nations like Spain, that have the same spending of GDP in Education (4,3%), have better universities than ours. Other nations that have a not so bigger spending in Education, such as Germany (4,5%), have one of the best universities in the world and no tuition fees. The GDP spending of Italy is lower than the medium range in EU (5,5%), but it is not so low to justify such a so bad level of quality. The most common pattern in Italian Higher Education is “an uniform mediocrity”. There is no Italian Institution in the top 100 best university world rankings. The biggest issue is not to spend more, but to spend better, in order to offer a credible service charged by lower tuition fees.


According to The Economist five Italian universities are in effect bankrupt. The Italian Higher Education is in some ways, the equivalent of the slow, bureaucratic, and poorly managed National Health Service in United Kingdom (one of the most expensive and worst NHS systems in OECD countries). Italian students also have the highest dropout rate (55%) and graduate very late (28 years old). If you come from UK, and you are familiar to some mad GPs and Surgeons in your local hospitals, these horrible images are not so different from what you could find in some Departments in Italy. Another occult aspect of our Educational System is Cronism. In the last 20 years, in Italy we had the biggest increasing of “Mickey Mouse Degrees”, and a proliferation on nonsense courses and Departments. According to The Economist in Italy there are 37 courses with one student, and 327 faculties with less than 15 students.


Another bad aspect of our Higher Education is that is based on the nonsense idea to give a Bachelor Degree to every F grade High School leaver picked on the street. In fact, there is not a credible selection process, and many Italians with serious lack of skills in Literacy and Numeracy (and maybe behavioural problems), can easily access to University. This idea creates a falling quality in education, and a massive creation of unskilled graduates. Most of them cannot write or speak in a correct language, and graduate very late with an Ordinary Degree and very low grades in exams. In few words, Italian Academia is going to be a factory of “enriched chavs”. According to OECD studies, Italian graduate have one of the lowest level of knowledge and skills in EU. Some nations in the PIIGS area perform better such as Ireland, Spain and maybe Portugal and Greece.


The last occult aspect of Italian Higher Education System is that it doesn’t have a concrete contact with job market, it doesn’t teach real skills in work environment, and it works on the bad idea to work as parking “for future unemployed citizens”. Despite many nations in Northern Europe, our universities don’t offer programs of working experiences, apprenticeships, internships and sandwich course where you study and then you have training. It doesn’t teach real skills for example how to start your business, and how to sell you product, or how to invest your savings in the stock market. The most occult side is the idea of “parking for future unemployed citizens”. Because our youth unemployment is one of the highest in EU, making University education easier is a way to attract more schooleavers (very potential unemployed citizens) in the Higher Educational System, in order to reduce the real unemployment rate. Because 70% of our schooleavers easily enrol to University, many of them will figure on the national statistics as people still in education. On the other side the number of young jobless appear much lower (youth unemployment is 34%). If Italian University was more selective like 20 years ago, the real number of young jobless would immediately increase to 70% or maybe 80%.


In order to conclude, my case of academic mobbing and bullying is an evident example of the dysfunctional, unproductive and badly performed Higher Educational System in our Republic. The EU, NATO and OECD think thanks should examine the terrible situation in our country, and make strict pressures to our institutions in order to make changes. If the situation doesn’t change, it will explode the biggest bubble in Italian History: The University Bubble scam. This is not only a problem of staff absence and embarrassing levels of disorganization, there is a serious risk of a total bankruptcy of our entire Educational system. Italy is facing “A Deliberate Dumbing Down of youth”, and a Bachelor Degree is going to be no more than a worthless piece of paper.





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Intellihub.com

The Man Who Cannot Graduate and the Failure of College Education in Italy

Saturday, February 23, 2013

Beppe Grillo Surges in Last Minute Rush; Is That a Good Thing?

Reader “AC” who is from Italy but now lives in France informs me that the Italian elections this weekend are getting even more interesting.

Specifically, “AC” writes “Grillo claims 800,000 assisted at his closure meeting in Rome with another 150,000 via streaming. My feeling is that there will be a huge turnout for Grillo in the election“.

Joe Weisenthal on the Business Insider writes “I Have Seen The Scariest Chart In Europe“.

The chart Weisenthal refers to is from Google Trends. It shows a surge in searches on Beppe Grillo. Weisenthal says …

Grillo is a comedian-turned-politician who is doing shockingly well the Italian elections (coming up this Sunday and Monday) by running on an aggressive anti-bank, euro-skeptic platform.

He’s capitalizing on the deep frustration that exists in Italy due to the weak economy, and the perception that the current government is too corrupt and cozy with banks. Were he to gain a sizable block in the upcoming parliament, he represents a pretty serious threat.

A threat? A Threat to What?

Grillo wants Italy to vote on whether or not to stay in the Eurozone. On that score I happen to agree. The sooner the eurozone splinters the better. Greece would be better off if it left four years ago and Spain would be better off if it left now.

That does not mean I endorse all the policies of Grillo, and indeed I don’t. My point is that huge change is desperately needed.

As I have stated on many occasions “Eventually, there will come a time when a populist office-seeker will stand before the voters, hold up a copy of the EU treaty and (correctly) declare all the “bail out” debt foisted on their country to be null and void. That person will be elected.”

The scare should not be that a breakup happens, but rather that the inevitable is delayed with grave consequences.

Scariest Chart Ever?

Weisenthal calls that the scariest Europe chart ever. Assuming the chart does represent an increasing interest in Beppe Grillo, I call it a necessary trend on the path to rebalancing Europe.

For more on the election in Italy, an explanation of Beppe Grillo’s “5 Star Movement” and some election predictions, please see European Reader Offers Insights on Upcoming Italian Election

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis


Beppe Grillo Surges in Last Minute Rush; Is That a Good Thing?

Wednesday, February 20, 2013

Germany Warns Against "Silvio the Savior" (And That May Backfire); Fake Horse Race Odds Get Around Blackouts

Italians head to the polls on February 24-25 to replace the technocrat government of prime minister Mario Monti.

Pier Luigi Bersani, who heads the centre-left Bene Commune (Common Good) coalition was considered a shoo-in a few short weeks ago, at least in the Chamber (the lower house of parliament).

It’s all up in the air now as Silvio Berlusconi, head of the centre-right Il Popolo della Libertà (the People of Freedom) has staged a massive rally in the polls (now blacked out). Berlusconi has been on a rampage lately blaming Germany and Chancellor Angela Merkel for the unemployment problems in Italy. It’s a populist message that is resonating well with voters.

Beppe Grillo’s Movimento 5 Stelle (Five Star Movement) has been largely ignored in the Italian press, yet Grillo has been wildly popular at rallies. Grillo has a chance to come in second, and I would not be surprised by a first place finish.

Mario Monti, who heads the centrist Con Monti per l’Italia (With Monti for Italy) coalition, is running a very distant 4th.

“Fare per Fermare il Declino” (literally “Act to Stop the Decline”, acronym FiD), is a primarily Libertarian party founded less than a year ago but until a recent stumble had been gaining enough steam to possibly overtake Monti.

For further analysis of FiD and the other parties, please see European Reader Offers Insights on Upcoming Italian Election

Poll Blackouts

Officially, pollsters cannot post poll results in a blackout period before the election. That blackout period started February 9. Here is a snapshot of the polls on February 8.

Those results are misleading because they do not include undecided voters, and the undecided vote is a whopping 20-25 percent!

With such little difference between Berlusconi and Bersani, and with huge rallies for Beppe Grillo and Berlusconi, any outcome is possible. Will Grillo take votes from Berlusconi or Bersani (or both). If enough of both I could even envision a win. If he takes more votes from Bersani, then Berlusconi is likely to win.

From my experience, late deciders break in a massive way for one candidate or the other (and in the US election I predicted for Obama). Here, it appears against Bersani (to who is more uncertain).

Fake Horse Race Odds Get Around Blackouts

Adding more confusion rather than clarity, Yahoo!News reports Fake horse racing blog dodges Italy’s election polls blackout

A blog appears to have found a way around a publishing ban on polls in the two weeks before the vote by writing up the results of pretend “underground horse races”, which appear to reflect each party’s standing.

On the final day polls could be published before the blackout fell, bloggers Andrea Mancia and Simone Bressan posted “The illegal races return!” on their site Notapolitica.it setting out the main “stables” and “jockeys” competing.

In line with the last published official polls, the winning horses of Tuesday’s “San Nicola Racetrack” came from the “Bien Comun” stables, a thinly disguised name for the centre-left “Italia Bene Comune” coalition.

The centre right of former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi was shown coming in just 3.5 “seconds” behind.  Using a mix of puns and French, Notapolitica.it renders centre-left leader Pier Luigi Bersani as jockey “Pier le Smacchiateur” and Mario Monti as “Mario de la Montaigne”. Berlusconi is dubbed “Burlesque”.

Horses representing Beppe Grillo’s 5-Star Movement are referred to as “stellar”, while the names of races allude to different pollsters. “San Walter Giuliano Racecourse”, for example, appears to refer to research group SWG.

It is difficult to say if those are official polling results or fictional. Assuming the polls are accurate (not an assumption I am ready to make), it is still difficult to know how undecided voters were handled.

Germany Warns Against Berlusconi

Of potentially more importance, Berlin Warns Italians against Berlusconi

Here are a few examples from the story.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble reportedly said (but later denied) “Silvio Berlusconi may be an effective campaign strategist, but my advice to the Italians is not to make the same mistake again by re-electing him.”

Polenz, a senior member of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats, said: “Italy needs political leaders who stand for the future. Berlusconi is certainly not one of them.”

One Italian bank even went so far this week as to issue a report arguing that a Berlusconi election would almost certainly force the country to apply for emergency bailout aid from the EU. Mediobanca, Italy’s largest investment bank, wrote that “a last-minute Berlusconi victory would scare the market sufficiently to put pressure on the spread.”

“Silvio the Savior”

In Italy, the opposite is happening. Spiegel reports Berlusconi’s Faithful: ‘Only Silvio Can Save Italy’

Adoration of Berlusconi in Italy remains widespread. In the parallel universe occupied by his followers, there is no room for doubt about Berlusconi and lines are clearly drawn. Silvio is good and the others are bad.

These fans gather at his speeches, like the Saturday rally in Palermo, where thousands crowded into the venerable Teatro Politeama. There were women in long fur coats and fine gentlemen in three-piece suits. Dock workers like Ferrante squeezed with them through the entrance, everyone pushing and shoving each other like adolescents at a rock concert. The hundreds who didn’t make it in must stand outside.

Silvio the Savior

Fans of the 76-year-old ex-premier see him as more than just a beacon of hope. “Berlusconi will now start a revolution,” says teacher Marinella Romano. She confesses “I have always loved Silvio.” Donatella Catalano, a friendly retiree, gushes, “He stands for everything that is good in the world.” The unemployed Ferrante says that “only Silvio can save Italy, he will bring us much good.”

Fully a quarter of Italians are prepared to vote for Berlusconi again. It is an astounding degree of homage paid to man who faces allegations of abuse of power and bribery; who faces the scandal surrounding the underage escort Karima el-Marough, alias Ruby Rubacuori; who has been blasted for blatantly misogynistic comments; and who broke many promises as prime minister. Instead, the opposition, left-leaning judges and even the Germans are blamed for all that is not right with Italy.

“It was Merkel who toppled him,” says retiree Catalano, referring to the German chancellor. She then turns to her neighbor and says: “It’s better not to tell the man anything, because the Germans always write negatively about Berlusconi.” Another voice yells: “First World War II and now attacks against Berlusconi!”

The comments are not surprising. In almost every campaign speech, Berlusconi rails against Germany. “Should we continue to allow Germany to dictate policies that ruin Italy?” he calls out. “Nooooo!” scream his followers.

Election Predictions

It’s difficult to judge from this side of the Atlantic, but things do not look good for a viable center-left coalition. At best, Bersani will win the Chamber and lose the Senate. That would likely result in a hung parliament.

Anti-German sentiment in Italy is high already. The entrance of German politicians into the battle may fuel that sentiment in a major way.

It is conceivable “Silvio the Savior” pulls off a stunning upset win in both the Chamber and Senate, but a Senate victory would still require a coalition (no party will come close to a majority).

In theory, Movimento 5 Stelle and Silvio Berlusconi could form a nice anti-Euro coalition and put the Euro to a vote, but given the anti-political party platform of Movimento 5 Stelle it’s hard to see that coalition forming.

Indeed it may be difficult if not impossible for any party to form a Senate coalition if Monti’s party does poorly enough (as I expect it will).

The most likely outcome once again is a hung parliament, and the next most likely outcome may very well be a return of Silvio Berlusconi (rather than a weak center left coalition of some sort that most seem to expect).

Regardless, Berlusconi is no savior (nor is there one to be found in the entire group). There are no good outcomes for Italy.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis


Germany Warns Against "Silvio the Savior" (And That May Backfire); Fake Horse Race Odds Get Around Blackouts