Polls show the support for the anti-euro Alternatives for Germany AfD party as high as 17% according to the Financial Times.
However that 17% is the number of voters who would “consider” voting for an anti-euro party, not the number of people committed to that outcome.
Specifically, the FT article states “AfD is a late entrant for the election on September 22 and might not be radical enough to attract protest voters it needs in order to make it over the five per cent vote threshold for seats in the Bundestag.“
The AfD, led by economics professor Bernd Lucke, is dominated by former CDU members who became disillusioned with the chancellor’s European policy that is broadly supported by a majority of the public.”
Underestimating the Vote
In contrast to the possibility AfD receives less than 5% of the vote as mentioned by the Financial Times, reader Bern who lives in Germany believes AfD is going to receive substantially more than 10% of the vote.
Bern writes ….
Hello Mish,I just returned from the foundation congregation of AfD party in Berlin.
About 1500 party members from all parts of Germany came to Berlin to form the federal part of the party as per legal requirement in order to participate in the coming federal elections. The party is now legally formed, it has a legal party statute and an election program.
This means that about 50% of all legal requirements are now met. We have another 100 days to meet the other 50% (establish a State arm of the party in each federal State (16) and to collect 2000 signatures in each State). We do not expect any problems arising from these two obstacles.
It can now safely be assumed that AfD is “open for business” for the coming federal elections.
This party is something entirely new in Germany. It does no longer follow traditional “dividing lines” between left and right or conservative and liberal. Our members are clearly from the heart of the “bourgeois” society of Germany. Small entrepreneurs, self-employed people, teachers and professors, doctors and lawyers, skilled workers, craftsmen,…. in short, a wide variety of the so called “better educated” part of society, who naturally have a rather diverse ideological background.
The common theme uniting this varied crowd is the desire to get rid of the shackles of the Euro and to return to democratic values, both in Europe as well as in Germany.
With about 10,000 members and growing rapidly, I would be surprised if the party received less than 10% of the votes in the coming German federal elections. I am prepared to stick my neck out and predict a figure substantially higher.
AfD will have a considerable influence on German politics in the coming months. It is now no longer possible for the other parties to ignore this new movement.
CDU, SPD, FDP and the Green Party can no longer avoid the Euro as the dominant and overriding theme of the coming German elections.
Chancellor Merkel had wanted to do a “sleeping pill” campaign on such peculiar subjects as “fairness”, “family values” and the like. SPD and Green Party were happy to follow. FDP added some “lowering taxes” issues to the mix.
As of today, Merkel can kiss that objective goodbye.
The Euro and democracy will be the overriding themes of the coming elections. This will catapult AfD into the minds of the people here.
As the Euro comes under attack from all sides. I wonder if an orderly dissolution is still possible or if the result is a disorderly collapse. I still believe the latter is more likely.
Best wishes
Bernd
Given that the nannycrats have underestimated the backlash of every policy decision and every important vote, especially in Italy, I am a firm believer that reader Bern is correct.
In a followup post, we will discuss what this means for chancellor Merkel. Here’s a hint. If you are a Merkel supporter, the result won’t be pretty.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis
German Reader Tackles Question "What Percentage of the Vote will Anti-Euro Party AfD Receive in Upcoming Election?"
